The Iglesia ni Cristo vote: Decoding its impact on the 2025 senatorial race

MANILA, Philippines—For decades, the Iglesia ni Cristo (INC) has been a well-recognized force in Philippine elections, largely due to its practice of bloc voting.

The church, founded in 1914 by Felix Manalo, has consistently instructed its members to vote as a single unit during elections, making its endorsement highly coveted by politicians.

This practice, widely known as “command voting,” has cemented INC’s reputation as a kingmaker in tightly contested races.

READ: INC endorsements: Do they matter?

In the 2020 Census of Population and Housing, the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA) recorded 2,806,524 members of the INC, representing 2.6 percent of the country’s population. Although modest in proportion, this bloc vote is considered crucial in swing regions and tightly contested races.

Mahar Mangahas, chair emeritus of Social Weather Stations (SWS), underscored the INC’s influence, saying in a recent television interview:

“From experience, Iglesia ni Cristo talagang solid yan. By solid, I mean 80 percent, not hundred ha. My feelings have always been that, but kakaunti lang sila, mga 5 percent lang ang Iglesia ni Cristo voters, so I haven’t seen yet that that would change the standing so much.”

(From experience, the Iglesia ni Cristo is really solid. By solid, I mean 80 percent—not a hundred, okay? That’s always been my impression. But there are only a few of them, around 5 percent of the voters are Iglesia ni Cristo members, so I haven’t seen that significantly change the standings so far.)

Mangahas’ estimate of 80 percent loyalty from INC voters is grounded in data.

Exit polls have repeatedly shown that INC’s command voting is not entirely monolithic but remains robust, particularly in local races. In the 2016 TV5-SWS Exit Poll, 77.2 percent of INC voters supported then-presidential candidate Rodrigo Duterte, demonstrating significant bloc unity.

However, the bloc’s influence is more apparent in races where margins are razor-thin. Historical data shows that the INC vote can provide the necessary push for candidates trailing at the edge of the “Magic 12” to secure their spots.

The numbers behind the bloc

INC membership has grown steadily over the past two decades, albeit at varying rates. Data from the PSA’s Population and Housing surveys reveal the following:

• 2000: 1,762,845 members
• 2010: 2,251,941 members
• 2015: 2,664,498 members
• 2020: 2,806,524 members

The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over various periods indicates a consistent increase in INC membership from 2000 to 2010, averaging 2.48 percent per year. Growth accelerated between 2010 and 2015, reaching 3.42 percent, before decelerating to 1.04 percent annually from 2015 to 2020.

Projections for 2025 based on historical growth rates estimate membership could range from 2.9 million to 3.3 million, depending on which rate is applied.

Regional strength and political clout

The geographic distribution of INC members further highlights its political sway.

Central Luzon (Region III), CALABARZON (Region IV-A), and the National Capital Region (NCR) host the largest concentrations of INC members, with over 1.5 million members combined. These regions are not only population-dense but also politically strategic, often deciding crucial margins in national and local races.

Top regions for INC membership (2020):

• Region III (Central Luzon): 597,448
• Region IV-A (CALABARZON): 494,599
• NCR: 441,815

The church’s influence in these regions is significant. According to data from the 2020 Census, one in every 70 people in NCR is an INC member. In Region III, the proportion is even higher at one in every 60 people. This concentration translates to substantial sway in election outcomes, particularly when the margin of victory is narrow.

The 2010 elections provide a glimpse of how bloc voting translates into actual vote tallies. In that election cycle, the SWS/TV5 exit poll showed that 4.23 percent of valid votes for president were cast by people who declared their religion as INC.

According to the Commission on Elections (Comelec), 36.14 million votes were cast for president during the same election period, excluding stray votes. With these figures, Mangahas estimated that there were approximately 1.53 million votes from INC members for the presidential race.

The same level of support was reflected in the vice-presidential race. Comelec recorded 35.17 million valid votes for vice president in 2010, while the SWS/TV5 Exit Poll found that 4.28 percent of those votes were cast by self-identified INC members.

“Multiplying the two gives an estimated 1.51 million votes of INCs for vice president in 2010,” Mangahas explained.

These figures highlight how INC’s consolidated voting bloc consistently contributes a solid number of votes that can be pivotal in tight races. The church’s practice of bloc voting allows its members to deliver a substantial share of ballots to its endorsed candidates, particularly in regions where INC membership is high.

The power of endorsement: A historical perspective

Data from past senatorial races indicate that an INC endorsement, while not a guaranteed path to victory, provides a considerable advantage.

In the 2016 elections, 10 out of the 12 candidates endorsed by INC won, including Franklin Drilon, Tito Sotto, and Richard Gordon. The only two to miss the mark were Francis Tolentino and Martin Romualdez.

The 2019 senatorial race was another demonstration of INC’s electoral clout. Eleven of the 12 endorsed candidates secured a seat in the Senate, with only Jinggoy Estrada falling short.

In 2022, INC’s endorsement again delivered, with 10 of the 12 chosen candidates landing Senate seats, including Robin Padilla and Loren Legarda. Padilla’s unexpected rise to the top of the senatorial race was partly attributed to the INC’s support, among several other factors that contributed to his electoral success.

The 2025 results

In the 2025 Philippine senatorial elections, INC reportedly endorsed eight candidates. Of these, seven secured seats in the Senate, while one fell short. The final rankings of the INC-endorsed candidates were as follows:

• Bong Go – 1st
• Bam Aquino – 2nd
• Ronald dela Rosa – 3rd
• Rodante Marcoleta – 6th
• Pia Cayetano – 9th
• Camille Villar – 10th
• Imee Marcos – 12th
• Bong Revilla – 14th

READ: Iglesia ni Cristo endorses 8 Senate bets

Bong Revilla, despite the INC endorsement, did not make it into the “Magic 12,” finishing 14th in the final tally.

The outcomes for Marcoleta and Aquino, however, raise questions about the degree of impact INC’s support may have had in pushing them from survey underdogs to top Senate finishers.

According to Mangahas, the INC typically announces its list of endorsed candidates a week before elections, aligning its support with frontrunners in surveys. He wrote in a 2022 opinion piece:

“It endorses candidates not on the basis of any moral or political standard but on who the public opinion polls show to be the most likely winners.”

Yet, Marcoleta and Aquino were exceptions to this trend, both trailing far outside the “Magic 12” in the final SWS survey conducted from May 2 to 6, 2025:

• Marcoleta was ranked 18th place with 17 percent—far from the Magic 12. His final placement at 6th marks one of the most significant jumps in the race.
• Aquino, initially in 16th place with 23 percent, managed to climb all the way to the 2nd spot in the final tally, a shift not anticipated by the surveys.

The impact of the bloc: A closer look

Historically, INC has been known to lift candidates from trailing positions into winning spots, particularly those hanging on the margins of the Magic 12. Allan Cairo Reyes’ analysis, in his study Probing the Iglesia Vote: Religious Endorsement and Iglesia Support in the 2004 and 2010 Senatorial Elections, explained this phenomenon:

“While endorsement and popularity are both effective determinants of electoral support, the real impact of an INC endorsement depends on how well an endorsed candidate is performing in the polls.”

For Marcoleta, the endorsement may have provided consolidation of votes in INC-dense regions like NCR (1,695,144 votes), Cebu (932,329 votes), and Davao Del Sur (761,926 votes). His substantial vote counts in Cavite (526,558 votes) and Bulacan (440,779 votes) also correspond with top INC strongholds.

However, Mangahas has pointed out that INC members represent only about 5percent of the total voting population. This estimate suggests that while INC’s bloc voting can be influential, its reach is inherently limited by its demographic size.

Given this, Marcoleta’s large vote tallies in key regions cannot be solely attributed to INC support. Instead, the bloc vote may have served as a supplementary boost in areas where his local campaigns or other endorsements were also strong.

Similarly, Aquino’s leap from 16th to 2nd marks one of the largest pre-to-post-election shifts seen in recent senatorial races. He secured 3,294,828 votes in NCR—a region with a high concentration of INC members—along with strong performances in Cavite (926,675 votes) and Bulacan (916,505 votes).

While INC’s presence is notable in these provinces, the total estimated number of INC votes would still represent only a fraction of his overall vote count, indicating that broader electoral appeal, regional endorsements, and strategic campaigning likely played a role.

Evaluating the bloc’s contribution:

These gains support Reyes’ findings, which found that an INC endorsement can deliver between 600,000 to 1 million votes, enough to close the gap for trailing candidates.

Reyes further explained:

“Candidates who are already projected to place at the top or upper half of the ‘Magic 12’ do not really benefit much from the INC endorsement. At best, the command votes can only shift their projected rankings in the surveys.”

“It is candidates who trail behind the polls who really gain from an INC endorsement because the solid votes can spell the difference between winning and losing.”

This analysis appears to align with Marcoleta’s and Aquino’s unexpected climbs. Both were outside the Magic 12 in pre-election surveys but leaped to 6th and 2nd place, respectively.

However, it is crucial to recognize that INC bloc voting alone would not have been enough to generate the full volume of votes they received, suggesting that other factors like local political machinery, media visibility, and campaign strategy also played significant roles.

Contextualizing the surge

While it is challenging to isolate the exact impact of the INC endorsement, the correlation between high vote tallies for both Marcoleta and Aquino in strategic provinces suggests a potential influence of bloc voting.

However, the fact that INC represents only 5 percent of the total electorate tempers the assumption that bloc voting alone was the deciding factor. The data suggests that INC’s influence likely worked as an amplifier in critical areas but was not the sole driver of their rise in the polls.

Additionally, campaign strategies, local endorsements, and media exposure may have contributed significantly to their performance. The substantial vote counts in regions like NCR, Cavite, and Bulacan, which are known political battlegrounds, indicate that broader voter support beyond INC likely played a critical role.

Bloc voting in 2025: Reinforcement of historical trends

The 2025 senatorial race, once again, highlighted the unique political force of the INC’s bloc voting strategy. For those trailing in surveys, the INC endorsement was a lifeline, shifting standings dramatically when votes were counted.

Reyes’ findings illustrate that while the INC vote is not monolithic, it is sufficiently consolidated to make a difference.

“An Iglesia endorsement only yields approximately 58 percent to 61 percent of votes from INC members,” Reyes noted, but this bloc is often enough to secure the margin needed for entry into the Magic 12.

However, Mangahas contends that the political weight of the INC is sometimes overstated.

“The Iglesia Ni Cristo’s endorsement as the deciding factor in a candidate’s success is a myth,” Mangahas previously said.

The results indicate that while the INC endorsement may not always be the sole deciding factor, it is undoubtedly a powerful catalyst in tight races, particularly for those on the fringes of victory.